Achieving the "Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S." incidence reduction goals among at-risk populations in the South.

INTRODUCTION: Antiretroviral medication coverage remains sub-optimal in much of the United States, particularly the Sothern region, and Non-Hispanic Black or African American persons (NHB) continue to be disproportionately impacted by the HIV epidemic. The "Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S." (EHE) initiative seeks to reduce HIV incidence nationally by focusing resources towards the most highly impacted localities and populations. This study evaluates the impact of hypothetical improvements in ART and PrEP coverage to estimate the levels of coverage needed to achieve EHE goals in the South. METHODS: We developed a stochastic, agent-based network model of 500,000 individuals to simulate the HIV epidemic and hypothetical improvements in ART and PrEP coverage. RESULTS: New infections declined by 78.6% at 90%/40% ART/PrEP and 94.3% at 100%/50% ART/PrEP. Declines in annual incidence rates surpassed 75% by 2025 with 90%/40% ART/PrEP and 90% by 2030 with 100%/50% ART/PrEP coverage. Increased ART coverage among NHB MSM was associated with a linear decline in incidence among all MSM. Declines in incidence among Hispanic/Latino and White/Other MSM were similar regardless of which MSM race group increased their ART coverage, while the benefit to NHB MSM was greatest when their own ART coverage increased. The incidence rate among NHB women declined by over a third when either NHB heterosexual men or NHB MSM increased their ART use respectively. Increased use of PrEP was associated with a decline in incidence for the groups using PrEP. MSM experienced the largest absolute declines in incidence with increasing PrEP coverage, followed by NHB women. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis indicates that it is possible to reach EHE goals. The largest reductions in HIV incidence can be achieved by increasing ART coverage among MSM and all race groups benefit regardless of differences in ART initiation by race. Improving ART coverage to > 90% should be prioritized with a particular emphasis on reaching NHB MSM. Such a focus will reduce the largest number of incident cases, reduce racial HIV incidence disparities among both MSM and women, and reduce racial health disparities among persons with HIV. NHB women should also be prioritized for PrEP outreach.

Mass drug administration for lymphatic filariasis elimination amidst COVID-19 pandemic in Odisha, India: A step towards achieving SDG-3.

Sustainable Development Goal-3 (SDG) aims to eliminate lymphatic filariasis by 2030 through >65% coverage and compliance of mass drug administration (MDA), the preventive chemotherapy strategy of delivering anthelminthic drugs. However, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted such programmes, yet MDA was administered during February 2021 in Odisha, India. We aimed to assess the coverage and compliance of the present round of MDA amidst the pandemic and explore factors for non-compliance in Cuttack district of Odisha, a filariasis endemic area. Community-based participants enrolled through multistage stratified sampling were administered a semi-structured questionnaire following COVID-19 protocols. The coverage of MDA was 93.2% whereas consumption was 73.7%. Participants reported that healthcare workers were motivated and satisfactorily explained the benefits of MDA but still fear of side-effects was the major cause of non-compliance. Nonetheless, this recent round of MDA was effective, despite challenges posed by the ongoing pandemic.

Rabies Elimination in Rural Kenya: Need for Improved Availability of Human Vaccines, Awareness and Knowledge on Rabies and Its Management Among Healthcare Workers.

Background: In Africa, rabies causes an estimated 24,000 human deaths annually. Mass dog vaccinations coupled with timely post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) for dog-bite patients are the main interventions to eliminate human rabies deaths. A well-informed healthcare workforce and the availability and accessibility of rabies biologicals at health facilities are critical in reducing rabies deaths. We assessed awareness and knowledge regarding rabies and the management of rabies among healthcare workers, and PEP availability in rural eastern Kenya. Methodology: We interviewed 73 healthcare workers from 42 healthcare units in 13 wards in Makueni and Kibwezi West sub-counties, Makueni County, Kenya in November 2018. Data on demographics, years of work experience, knowledge of rabies, management of bite and rabies patients, and availability of rabies biologicals were collected and analyzed. Results: Rabies PEP vaccines were available in only 5 (12%) of 42 health facilities. None of the health facilities had rabies immunoglobulins in stock at the time of the study. PEP was primarily administered intramuscularly, with only 11% (n = 8) of the healthcare workers and 17% (7/42) healthcare facilities aware of the dose-sparing intradermal route. Less than a quarter of the healthcare workers were aware of the World Health Organization categorization of bite wounds that guides the use of PEP. Eighteen percent (n = 13) of healthcare workers reported they would administer PEP for category I exposures even though PEP is not recommended for this category of exposure. Only one of six respondents with acute encephalitis consultation considered rabies as a differential diagnosis highlighting the low index of suspicion for rabies. Conclusion: The availability and use of PEP for rabies was sub-optimal. We identified two urgent needs to support rabies elimination programmes: improving availability and access to PEP; and targeted training of the healthcare workers to improve awareness on bite wound management, judicious use of PEP including appropriate risk assessment following bites and the use of the dose-sparing intradermal route in facilities seeing multiple bite patients. Global and domestic funding plan that address these gaps in the human health sector is needed for efficient rabies elimination in Africa.

Polio amidst COVID-19 in Pakistan: Ongoing efforts, challenges, and recommendations.

Poliomyelitis is a crippling viral disease caused by poliovirus, a positive-stranded RNA virus that is a serotype of Enterovirus C. Pakistan remains one of the countries in the world where poliomyelitis is still prevalent, posing an obstacle to global poliomyelitis eradication. With the commencement of the COVID-19 pandemic, polio eradication campaigns have proven less feasible, resulting in an increase in polio cases across the country. Pakistan's healthcare system and socio-economic framework are incapable of dealing with two deadly viruses at the same time. As a result, effective measures for combating the destruction caused by the spread of the poliovirus are required.

Elimination versus mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 in the presence of effective vaccines.

There is increasing evidence that elimination strategies have resulted in better outcomes for public health, the economy, and civil liberties than have mitigation strategies throughout the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. With vaccines that offer high protection against severe forms of COVID-19, and increasing vaccination coverage, policy makers have had to reassess the trade-offs between different options. The desirability and feasibility of eliminating SARS-CoV-2 compared with other strategies should also be re-evaluated from the perspective of different fields, including epidemiology, public health, and economics. To end the pandemic as soon as possible-be it through elimination or reaching an acceptable endemic level-several key topics have emerged centring around coordination, both locally and internationally, and vaccine distribution. Without coordination it is difficult if not impossible to sustain elimination, which is particularly relevant in highly connected regions, such as Europe. Regarding vaccination, concerns remain with respect to equitable distribution, and the risk of the emergence of new variants of concern. Looking forward, it is crucial to overcome the dichotomy between elimination and mitigation, and to jointly define a long-term objective that can accommodate different political and societal realities.

Plant lectins as prospective antiviral biomolecules in the search for COVID-19 eradication strategies.

Lectins or clusters of carbohydrate-binding proteins of non-immune origin are distributed chiefly in the Plantae. Lectins have potent anti-infectivity properties for several RNA viruses including SARS-CoV-2. The primary purpose of this review is to review the ability of lectins mediated potential biotherapeutic and bioprophylactic strategy against coronavirus causing COVID-19. Lectins have binding affinity to the glycans of SARS-COV-2 Spike glycoprotein that has N-glycosylation sites. Apart from this, the complement lectin pathway is a "first line host defense" against the viral infection that is activated by mannose-binding lectins. Mannose-binding lectins deficiency in serum influences innate immunity of the host and facilitates infectious diseases including COVID-19. Our accumulated evidence obtained from scientific databases particularly PubMed and Google Scholar databases indicate that mannose-specific/mannose-binding lectins (MBL) have potent efficacies like anti-infectivity, complement cascade induction, immunoadjuvants, DC-SIGN antagonists, or glycomimetic approach, which can prove useful in the strategy of COVID-19 combat along with the glycobiological aspects of SARS-CoV-2 infections and antiviral immunity. For example, plant-derived mannose-specific lectins BanLac, FRIL, Lentil, and GRFT from red algae can inhibit and neutralize SARS-CoV-2 infectivity, as confirmed with in-vitro, in-vivo, and in-silico assessments. Furthermore, Bangladesh has a noteworthy resource of antiviral medicinal plants as well as plant lectins. Intensifying research on the antiviral plant lectins, adopting a glyco-biotechnological approach, and with deeper insights into the "glycovirological" aspects may result in the designing of alternative and potent blueprints against the 21st century's biological pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 causing COVID-19.

Vaccine hesitancy and other obstacles to COVID-19 control: lessons from smallpox.

The world confronts today a disease which was unknown as recently as early 2019. Now that there is a safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19, lessons can usefully be drawn from previous well documented vaccination efforts. Of these, the best documented and most successful is the Smallpox Eradication Program (SEP). A review was made of publications by major players in smallpox eradication, respecting the important differences between the disease, this review revealed several points of connection. Cultural factors loomed large both in the eradication of smallpox and progress, to date, in the control of COVID-19. Other points of similarity included political commitment, the set-up of strong surveillance mechanisms, and assurance of uniformly high quality vaccines tested and approved by the World Health Organization. The future of COVID-19 control depends, in part, on lessons learned from previous vaccination efforts. A review of those efforts will avoid repetition of past errors and permit adoption of best practices from the past. Such analyses must, of course, respect the important differences between COVID-19 and smallpox.

Translating Implementation Experiences and Lessons Learned From Polio Eradication Into a Global Health Course: Insights From an International Consortium.

Lessons learned from one global health program can inform responses to challenges faced by other programs. One way to disseminate these lessons is through courses. However, such courses are often delivered by and taught to people based in high-income countries and thus may not present a truly global perspective. The Synthesis and Translation of Research and Innovations from Polio Eradication (STRIPE) is a consortium of 8 institutions in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and the United States that seeks to carry out such a transfer of the lessons learned in polio eradication. This short report describes the collaborative process of developing content and curriculum for an international course, the learnings that emerged, the barriers we faced, and recommendations for future similar efforts. Various parts of our course were developed by teams of researchers from countries across South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. We held a series of regional in-person team meetings hosted in different countries to improve rapport and provide a chance to work together in person. The course content reflects the diversity of team members' knowledge in a variety of contexts. Challenges to this effort included team coordination (e.g., scheduling across time zones); hierarchies across and between countries; and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. We recommend planning for these hierarchies ahead of time and ensuring significant in-person meeting time to make the most of international collaboration.

Towards a shared understanding of sustainability for neglected tropical disease programs.

BACKGROUND: Sustainability within neglected tropical disease (NTD) programs is a complex and challenging issue. The need for a shared understanding about what sustainability means for NTD programs is more important than ever as stakeholders are currently realigning for the next decade of NTD programming with the launch of WHO's new NTD roadmap for 2012-2030. The aim of this paper is to assess different perspectives to generate a working definition of sustainability for NTD programs. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This study surveyed affiliates of the NTD NGO Network (NNN) about their definitions of sustainability and then analyzed the data using an inductive and deductive process. The research team drafted a sustainability statement based on the survey findings and then solicited and incorporated feedback on the statement from a diverse group of expert reviewers. The final statement includes a working definition of sustainability for NTD programs that highlights three key essential components to sustainability: domestic commitment, responsive resource mobilization, and accountability. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This research resulted in a sustainability statement, based on a survey and extensive consultation with stakeholders, that represents a starting point for shared understanding around the concept of sustainability for NTD programs. Future collaborative work should build off this definition and seek to incorporate indicators for sustainability into programmatic decision-making.

Engaging frontline providers: an important key to eliminating tuberculosis in Canada, and other high-income countries.

The greatest human cost of the rapidly moving pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 may be due to its impact on the response to other diseases. One such other disease is tuberculosis (TB). All indications suggest that COVID-19-related diversions of healthcare resources and disruptions to public health programming will exacerbate the slower moving pandemic of TB. This is expected to set back TB elimination efforts by years. This is a prediction that is especially relevant to Canada, which has repeatedly failed to meet pre-set targets for the elimination of TB even before the COVID-19 pandemic began. A collaborative approach to achieve TB elimination, one that engages all care providers, has recently been emphasized by the STOP-TB Partnership. Among TB elimination strategies, frontline providers (e.g., family physicians, emergency room physicians, and others) are well positioned to identify candidates for the treatment of latent TB infection, and make the diagnosis of infection-spreading cases of TB in a timely manner, thereby interrupting forward-moving chains of transmission. Electronic medical records offer the promise of automating these processes. In this commentary, we promote broader engagement of the workforce across multiple sectors of medicine to reduce TB associated morbidity and mortality, interrupt transmission, and shrink the reservoir of latent TB infection.

RéSUMé: Le plus grand coût humain de la pandémie de SRAS-CoV-2, une maladie à évolution rapide, pourrait être son impact sur la riposte aux autres maladies. L'une d'elles est la tuberculose. Selon tous les indicateurs, les ressources de soins de santé détournées et les programmes de santé publique perturbés pour lutter contre la COVID-19 vont exacerber la pandémie de tuberculose, dont l'évolution est plus lente. Il faut s'attendre à une régression de plusieurs années dans les efforts pour éliminer la tuberculose. C'est une prédiction qui concerne particulièrement le Canada, qui a à maintes reprises été incapable de respecter les objectifs préétablis d'élimination de la tuberculose, même avant la pandémie de COVID-19. Le Partenariat Halte à la tuberculose promulgue depuis peu une démarche concertée, impliquant tous les prestataires de soins, pour parvenir à éliminer la tuberculose. Entre autres stratégies d'élimination, on compte sur les prestataires de première ligne (médecins de famille, médecins d'urgence et autres), bien placés pour repérer les personnes candidates au traitement de la tuberculose-infection (latente) et pour diagnostiquer les cas de tuberculose-maladie (active) dans les meilleurs délais, ce qui interromprait les chaînes de transmission en mouvement. Le dossier médical électronique recèle la promesse d'automatiser ces processus. Dans notre commentaire, nous préconisons une plus grande mobilisation de la main-d'œuvre de plusieurs secteurs de la médecine afin de réduire la morbidité et la mortalité associées à la tuberculose, d'en interrompre la transmission et de réduire la taille du réservoir d'infection tuberculeuse latente.

Will SARS-CoV-2 Become Just Another Seasonal Coronavirus?

The future prevalence and virulence of SARS-CoV-2 is uncertain. Some emerging pathogens become avirulent as populations approach herd immunity. Although not all viruses follow this path, the fact that the seasonal coronaviruses are benign gives some hope. We develop a general mathematical model to predict when the interplay among three factors, correlation of severity in consecutive infections, population heterogeneity in susceptibility due to age, and reduced severity due to partial immunity, will promote avirulence as SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic. Each of these components has the potential to limit severe, high-shedding cases over time under the right circumstances, but in combination they can rapidly reduce the frequency of more severe and infectious manifestation of disease over a wide range of conditions. As more reinfections are captured in data over the next several years, these models will help to test if COVID-19 severity is beginning to attenuate in the ways our model predicts, and to predict the disease.

Updated Characterization of Outbreak Response Strategies for 2019-2029: Impacts of Using a Novel Type 2 Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Strain.

Delays in achieving the global eradication of wild poliovirus transmission continue to postpone subsequent cessation of all oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) use. Countries must stop OPV use to end all cases of poliomyelitis, including vaccine-associated paralytic polio (VAPP) and cases caused by vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs). The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated global cessation of all type 2 OPV (OPV2) use in routine immunization in 2016 but did not successfully end the transmission of type 2 VDPVs (VDPV2s), and consequently continues to use type 2 OPV (OPV2) for outbreak response activities. Using an updated global poliovirus transmission and OPV evolution model, we characterize outbreak response options for 2019-2029 related to responding to VDPV2 outbreaks with a genetically stabilized novel OPV (nOPV2) strain or with the currently licensed monovalent OPV2 (mOPV2). Given uncertainties about the properties of nOPV2, we model different assumptions that appear consistent with the evidence on nOPV2 to date. Using nOPV2 to respond to detected cases may reduce the expected VDPV and VAPP cases and the risk of needing to restart OPV2 use in routine immunization compared to mOPV2 use for outbreak response. The actual properties, availability, and use of nOPV2 will determine its effects on type 2 poliovirus transmission in populations. Even with optimal nOPV2 performance, countries and the GPEI would still likely need to restart OPV2 use in routine immunization in OPV-using countries if operational improvements in outbreak response to stop the transmission of cVDPV2s are not implemented effectively.

Hypothetical emergence of poliovirus in 2020: part 1. Consequences of policy decisions to respond using nonpharmaceutical interventions.

OBJECTIVES: As efforts to control COVID-19 continue, we simulate hypothetical emergence of wild poliovirus assuming an immunologically naïve population. This differs from the current global experience with polio and serves as a model for responding to future pandemics. METHODS: Applying an established global model, we assume a fully susceptible global population to polioviruses, independently introduce a virus with properties of each of the three stable wild poliovirus serotypes, and explore the impact of strategies that range from doing nothing to seeking global containment and eradication. RESULTS: We show the dynamics of paralytic cases as the virus spreads globally. We demonstrate the difficulty of eradication unless aggressive efforts begin soon after initial disease detection. Different poliovirus serotypes lead to different trajectories and burdens of disease. In the absence of aggressive measures, the virus would become globally endemic in 2-10 years, and cumulative paralytic cases would exceed 4-40 million depending on serotype, with the burden of disease shifting to younger ages. CONCLUSIONS: The opportunity to eradicate emerging infections represents an important public policy choice. If the world first observed the emergence of wild poliovirus in 2020, adopting aggressive control strategies would have been required to prevent a devastating global pandemic.

Guidelines Have a Key Role in Driving HCV Elimination by Advocating for Simple HCV Care Pathways.

The availability of pangenotypic direct-acting antivirals for treatment of hepatitis C (HCV) has provided an opportunity to simplify patient pathways. Recent clinical practice guidelines have recognised the need for simplification to ensure that elimination of HCV as a public health concern remains a priority. Despite the move towards simplified treatment algorithms, there remains some complexity in the recommendations for the management of genotype 3 patients with compensated cirrhosis. In an era where additional clinical trial data are not anticipated, clinical guidance should consider experience gained in real-world settings. Although more experience is required for some pangenotypic therapeutic options, on the basis of published real-world data, there is already sufficient evidence to consider a simplified approach for genotype 3 patients with compensated cirrhosis. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted the need to minimise the need for complex patient pathways and clinical practice guidelines need to continue to evolve in order to ensure that patient outcomes remain optimised.

An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

Despite a strong global commitment, polio eradication efforts continue now more than 30 years after the 1988 World Health Assembly resolution that established the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), and 20 years after the original target of the year 2000. Prior health economic analyses estimated incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 40-50 billion in 2008 U.S. dollars (US$2008, equivalent to 48-59 billion US$2019), assuming the achievement of polio eradication by 2012. Given the delays in achieving polio eradication and increased costs, we performed an updated economic analysis of the GPEI using an updated integrated global model, and considering the GPEI trajectory as of the beginning of 2020. Applying similar methods and assuming eradication achievement in 2023, we estimate incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 28 billion US$2019, which falls below the prior estimate. Delays in achieving polio eradication combined with the widescale introduction of relatively expensive inactivated poliovirus vaccine significantly increased the costs of the GPEI and make it less cost-effective, although the GPEI continues to yield expected incremental net benefits at the global level when considered over the time horizon of 1988-2029. The overall health and financial benefits of the GPEI will depend on whether and when the GPEI can achieve its goals, when eradication occurs, the valuation method applied, and the path dependence of the actions taken. Reduced expected incremental net benefits of the GPEI and the substantial economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic pose large financial risks for the GPEI.

Certifying the interruption of wild poliovirus transmission in the WHO African region on the turbulent journey to a polio-free world.

On Aug 25 2020, the Africa Regional Commission for the Certification of Poliomyelitis Eradication declared that the WHO African region had interrupted transmission of all indigenous wild polioviruses. This declaration marks the African region as the fifth of the six WHO regions to celebrate this extraordinary achievement. Following the Yaoundé Declaration on Polio Eradication in Africa by heads of state and governments in 1996, Nelson Mandela launched the Kick Polio out of Africa campaign. In this Health Policy paper, we describe the long and turbulent journey to the certification of the interruption of wild poliovirus transmission, focusing on 2016-20, lessons learned, and the strategies and analyses that convinced the Regional Commission that the African region is free of wild polioviruses. This certification of the WHO African region shows the feasibility of polio eradication in countries with chronic insecurity, inaccessible and hard-to-reach populations, and weak health systems. Challenges have been daunting and the sacrifices enormous-dozens of health workers and volunteers have lost their lives in the pursuit of a polio-free Africa.